OK, so my title is not exactly factually correct, more of a metaphoric statement about how we will not be going on a river cruise this month. And the title image, a photo taken by photojournalist Djordje Kojadinovic for a Reuters news article of a sunk German warship emerging from the now very shallow Danube River, is a fitting symbol of our now drastically revised river cruise.
The proposed changes to our original route are uninspiring when compared to the original. To be fair, Avalon had to offer something for travelers who still want to continue their European tour, and I suspect they’re legally obligated to provide an alternative before cancelling the excursion outright. Either way, we have already asked our travel agent to inform Avalon that we won’t be joining the alternative cruise. But more about that later.
When a River Cruise Doesn’t Go As Planned
I’ll walk you through what happens when things go awry, so you’re prepared for outcomes that might not match what you expected.
We did know in advance that this kind of disruption occasionally happens. The culprit is low water levels across Europe’s major rivers. You may have read that there was a brutal heat wave hanging over the continent over the summer. Lots of heat, virtually no rain, and now some of the worst water depth issues on record.
We did speculate some time ago that there was a good chance that we would have a modified tour with some detours by bus around particularly shallow points. Presumably to lighten the boat enough to let it slip through the very shallow water areas.
So if you’re thinking about a European river cruise, know that there’s a real chance things won’t go as planned, especially in the fall after a dry summer. Spring cruises carry somewhat less risk, since the rivers are typically replenished by melting snow.
That’s not to say you shouldn’t go. This really does look like a fun experience. As I mentioned, we are not “cruise people” and probably will not attempt to do this again, but you never know. If we ever do, it’ll be in the spring next time.
And if you are wondering, “was it really as bad as they claimed”, have a look at the following “Notice to Skippers” map. It is from the website “The EuRIS Portal”.
From Google’s Gemini:
“The EuRIS Portal (European River Information Services) is the definitive, official platform designed to track commercial traffic across all major European inland waterways. It integrates data from 13 European countries into a single interactive map, providing coverage of the entire interconnected network—including the Rhine, Danube, Moselle, and Main.”
You don’t need to know how to navigate this website to understand that all those symbols mean something unwanted is happening at those locations. I’ve “circled” the route we were supposed to take.
How Avalon Handled Things
I don’t really have any complaints about how Avalon handled all of this. I am sure they were working very hard behind the scenes to provide us with some sort of outing rather than just cancelling and leaving us… adrift. When we went through the booking process, we were advised that problems like this could arise, and that they would strive to provide the best experience possible, even with hiccups. And, they communicated with us exactly when they said they would.
And I am not distressed that we only found out about this a week before we were scheduled to depart. A big shift in river levels could have happened at any time, had there been serious rainfall in the key areas of Europe..
So, what you are going to read here is not corporate bashing, but hopefully a bit of a sympathetic but realistic look at things. We know, and you need to remember, this is not some evil plot on their part. It’s a result of the weather, and totally out of their control. Climate change is real.
What I found startling, though, was that things were bad enough that their alternative barely qualified as a river cruise at all.
In fact, although we would have been on the boat for the first week, we wouldn’t have been sailing on any of the three rivers we were supposed to navigate. I would have to qualify that slightly because on the very last day while we were staying on a boat at dock in Budapest, there was an opportunity to get on a local tour boat and cruise up and down the Danube a little bit.
Please read their proposed new itinerary below, especially the first week where we would have been resident on a sister-ship to the vessel we were supposed to board in Amsterdam. I am going to flesh that out a bit with a map after that to show you exactly where they were planning on having us dock overnight in the first week. Basically, it amounted to staying in the Netherlands for half of the excursion.
Have a read. If you are thinking about doing a river cruise, it’s worth knowing how operators might respond if issues pop up. Keep in mind that our situation is an extreme one, in perhaps the worst cruise season ever experienced.
That Said!
I would definitely like to make it clear that my purpose here isn’t to trash-talk Avalon. I think they did a really good job trying to make people as happy as possible in a tough situation, and probably made some smart business decisions that will help keep them afloat and operating..
The following image shows you that by August 17, they had already made the decision to offer full refunds to anyone who wanted to cancel. In talking to my travel agent neighbor, she said that this is rarely done.
If you do not feel that it is important for you to read what they offered, just skip the “Alternative Sailing Itinerary” section and move on to my analysis. You should still get a sense of what was being offered, and how we reacted to it.
Avalon’s Alternative Sailing Itinerary
Saturday, September 26th: Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
• Airport transfers and embarkation on Avalon Impression
• Windmills, Canals & Cheese of The Netherlands optional excursion
• Overnight in Amsterdam
Sunday, September 27th: Amsterdam – Enkhuizen
• Morning included choice between Amsterdam Off-the- Beaten-Path, Amsterdam Canal Cruise, or Power Walk in Amsterdam with your Adventure Host
• Afternoon sailing
• Overnight in Enkhuizen
Monday, September 28th: Enkhuizen – Rotterdam
• Morning included excursion in Enkhuizen or biking with the Adventure Host
• Afternoon sailing
• Overnight sailing to Middelburg
Tuesday, September 29th: Rotterdam – Middelburg
• Morning included excursion Rotterdam, Manhattan-on-the-Maas
• Power Walk in Rotterdam with your Adventure Host in the afternoon
• Sailing to Middelburg
Wednesday, September 30th: Middelburg – Antwerp
• Morning included walking tour in Middelburg
• Afternoon sailing
• Docked in Antwerp
Thursday, October 1st: Antwerp – Maastricht
• Morning included walking tour in Antwerp
• Afternoon and overnight sailing
Friday, October 2nd: Maastricht
• Morning included tour of Maastricht
• Free time in the afternoon
• Overnight in Maastricht
Saturday, October 3rd: Maastricht – Mainz – Nuremberg (Germany)
• Disembark the Avalon Impression and transfer to Mainz
• Free time for lunch
• Transfer to Nuremberg
• Check-in for dinner and overnight in Nuremberg
• Hotel in Nuremberg to be advised
Sunday, October 4th: Nuremberg
• Morning included choice between Splendors of Nuremberg, Roth’s Historical Forge and Ratibor Castle, or Rally Ground Tour
• Free time for lunch and free time in the afternoon
• Dinner and overnight in Nuremberg
• Hotel in Nuremberg to be advised
Monday, October 5th: Nuremberg – Regensburg – Linz (Austria)
• Check-out and transfer to Regensburg
• Walking tour and local lunch
• Transfer to Linz and Check-in for dinner and overnight in Linz
• Hotel in Linz to be advised
Tuesday, October 6th: Linz – Melk – Vienna
• Check-out and transfer to Melk
• Visit to Melk Abbey and local lunch
• Transfer to Vienna and embark Avalon Tranquility II
• Overnight in Vienna
Wednesday, October 7th: Vienna
• Morning included choice between Treasures of Vienna’s Ringstrasse or Biking in Vienna with your Adventure Host or Johann Strauss in Vienna: The Musician’s Life & Legacy
• Bites & Highlights of Vienna or Schönbrunn Palace, Cultural Gem of Austria optional excursions in the afternoon
• Classical Music Concert: Royal Waltz optional excursion
• Overnight in Vienna
Thursday, October 8th: Vienna – Bratislava (Slovakia) – Budapest (Hungary)
• Disembark Avalon Tranquility II and transfer to Bratislava
• Included sightseeing of Bratislava and free time for lunch
• Transfer to Budapest to embark the Avalon Expression
• Overnight in Budapest
Friday, October 9th: Budapest (Hungary)
• Morning included choice between Breathtaking Budapest or Hike to the Citadel in Budapest with your Adventure Host
• Afternoon choice of optional excursions Wine Tasting in the Hungarian Countryside or Bites & Highlights of Budapest
• After dinner, scenic sailing in Budapest on a local boat
• Overnight in Budapest
Saturday, October 10th: Budapest
• Ship docked in Budapest
• Disembarkation and airport transfers
Our Thoughts on the Matter
So you don’t have to piece together what would or wouldn’t have happened on the alternative cruise, I’ll explain exactly what would have been in store for us. One key thing you would not have read is that they were planning on giving back 25% of the amount we all paid, no small amount, just as a show of good faith. A great gesture for sure. So, thank you to them for doing that.
How Much We Paid
You should probably know exactly how much we paid for this outing. It’s somewhat crucial when evaluating the change to the cruise itinerary and how we might have responded to it.
We paid $24,452 per couple
To repeat, no small figure. That amount should give you a sense of the immediate emotional impact when we received the notification. What they were offering was a very substandard adventure in my opinion. In this case, we would certainly not “get what we paid for”.
This Is What They Were Proposing
To drill down into this a bit, the following is a map I made using Google Maps, which showing where we’d be docking each of the first seven nights.. Given that all four of us are experienced travellers and have been to the Netherlands a few times, and have even visited some of these places, we weren’t especially interested in cruising there or spending much time ashore.
I think it is fair to say that we originally assumed that if the trip was modified we would get to most of the towns and cities we were scheduled to see by one means or another. That was not what was going to happen if we had agreed to follow the new itinerary. We would have visited only six of the original 14 destinations, and that is mostly at the end of the trip.
If you want to refresh your memory about the original itinerary and see it on a map flip back to the first piece I wrote by clicking here.
Further, if you want to see how many kilometres we would have been putting in on the bus have a look at this next map I created showing the drive between all the destinations that we would be visiting. A total of 1347 km if we had driven straight through. My back is aching just thinking about it. So, no gentle cruise down a famous river enjoying the view on both sides while sipping a beverage and indulging in snacks. Rather, a bus ride for several hours each day until the end.
This map also provides a good visual perspective on what percentage of the excursion would have been spent on the bus… At least ¾ of the trip. So, you can probably appreciate that we immediately thought… No way, Jose!
But I would like to add an enormous caveat. In no way are we upset with Avalon about the “bus thing”. To repeat, it was totally out of their control, and none of their doing. Were we to book another river cruise, it would probably be with them, based upon how they are treating us throughout this charming little catastrophe. I’ll share some thoughts on why they may decided to not bus us along our original total route hitting all the planned original stops below.
The Business of It All
An important consideration, and one that we the passengers probably never think about is the costs involved in running a 15-day river cruise like ours. I want to guess at what I think the costs (in Canadian dollars) involved would be for Avalon and perhaps the business decisions that may have shaped them..
First of all, the ship holds 166 passengers and 47 crew members. Using a cost of ~$12,000 per person the revenues would work out to approximately $1,992,000. With ancillary sales onboard (booze sales, special shore excursions, spa, gift shop, etc.), the total revenue could be around $2,150,000.
Interestingly, when I asked Anthropic’s Claude AI chatbot, it came up with a range of between “$1.87 million – C$2.34 million”. So, around $2 million plus another $150,000 of onboard spending is probably a solid estimation — $2,150,000 total. Very close to my own estimate.
Next, I considered what the operating expense categories would be for the 14 nights and 15 days. I came up with the following list:
• Fuel – presumably one of the biggest expenses
• Crew – salaries, housing, feeding
• Insurance – for sure
• Food and beverages – alcohol served with no charge at specified times and meals
• Shore excursions – local guides, bus transfers
• Onboard Entertainment/Lectures – as listed in the original itinerary
• Docking and lock fees – every town visited would want a piece of the action
I posed the question to Claude, and it did come up with basically the same list I did for operating costs, but it also referenced other ongoing corporate expenses:
• Administrative costs
• Sales costs
• Maintenance
• Ship costs – purchase/loan
It also provided the following numbers.
“Direct operating subtotal about €450,000 to €650,000″ — Call it €550,000, which would be about $885,000.
“All-in total (Including corporate) roughly €850,000 to €1.2 million” — Call it €950,000, or about $1.5 million.
Reduced Passenger Revenues and Cost mitigation
I am not going to regale you here with a bunch of numbers and number crunching. If you want to do the math … knock yourself out. 🙂
I am going to look at the big picture. How their revenues might be reduced, and how they may mitigate those losses by reducing some of their own costs.
Revenues
Right off the hop, as mentioned, they have offered everyone a 25% refund, so a big drop in revenues. Secondly, we four travellers and others have abandoned ship and asked for a full refund.
So, there will be some revenues, but reduced.
Cost Mitigation
Let’s look at how their expenses might be reduced.
Spending the first week cruising close to home is a very good idea. I would speculate that fuel costs were reduced significantly by doing this. There would not have been any lock charges incurred, and docking fees may well have been reduced as well. Perhaps it also made it easier to provision the ship over that week.
Secondly, the crew would be earning their keep, and the company would simply be incurring the normal expenses it would have experienced over the first 7 of our 14 nights on board. This would also be the case for the additional four nights spent on board a docked Avalon ship in Vienna and Budapest. So, 11 nights of the 14 are covered. That would be significant.
Additionally, I suspect that some planned day tours and nightly onboard entertainment would be cancelled, potentially at reduced or no cost to the cruise line. Yes, there are still some excursions planned but many of them during the first week are simply walking tours… which may well be led by a crew member.
So, that leaves three nights that would result in new expenses. These would be primarily related to bus travel, hotel accommodations, and local meals. There may be other expenses I am unaware of as well.
It might also be fair to speculate that abandoning stops at most of the original towns and cities may have been related to the number of cruises being impacted, leaving several cruise lines scrambling for hotel rooms in those locales. Taking a bit of an alternate bus route may well have made it easier and cheaper to book hotels.
All in all, I am sure Avalon was working very hard to minimize new costs and still ensure a decent experience for the folks travelling with them. They were doing what they needed to do to survive, both for their own benefit and for the benefit of future travelers.
Wrapping It Up
Let’s wrap this up with something in a somewhat lighter mood. A little Facebook meme humor from “Meanwhile In Canada“. Although we did think about planning our own little tour of Europe instead of travelling on the cruise/bus trip, we have decided not to do that and are not going to Europe.
The following is the new agenda for our tour of European cities. 🙂
